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Home > Arhiva > 2011 > Numar: 1 > Câţi ani ar putea trăi un român pensionat în anul 2009?

 Câţi ani ar putea trăi un român pensionat în anul 2009? [How many years could live a Romanian retired in 2009?]

  • Vasile Gheţău (Romanian Academy, “Vladimir Trebici” Demographic Research Center, 13 September Way, 050711, Bucharest, E-mail:

Standard retirement age is going to increase in Romania during the next two decades following the general trends of EU countries. Unrealistic figures on remaining life expectancy of persons who moved to retirement in 2009 have been propagated by media, governmental representatives and politicians. Increasing the retirement age should be a sensitive decision based on economic, social and demographic reason. Arguments are given for not using the life expectancy at retirement age drawn out of period life tables and the need of a cohort approach. As cohort life tables are not yet available for Romanian birth cohorts, the proposed approach is to estimate the remaining life expectancy of persons pensioned in 2009 by using the ratio between the cohort and the period (2009) life expectancy at (Romanian) mean age of retirement in two countries having very rich data on both period and cohort age-specific mortality rates and life expectancy covering the second half of 19th century and the entire 20th century (France and Sweden), and applying this ratio to the period life expectancy at retirement age in Romania in 2009. The approach is carefully critically analyzed for validity and relevancy and strong national and international statistical background is given for further expected mortality decline after retirement and for consequent increase in life expectancy. Remaining life expectancy is presented for male and female seven type of pension: age limit-full length of service; age limit-incomplete length of service; early retirement; partially early retirement and invalidity -1st, 2nd and 3rd degree.
The study is not a pleading for the need of increasing the standard retirement age but gives a demographic argument for increasing it, as time spent in retirement is increasing considerably compared to time spent working.

Keywords: type of pension, effective and standard retirement age, period and cohort life tables, life expectancy and remaining life expectancy, age-specific mortality rate